COP Out 26
I did my first blog about the environment in Planet A when I put a new page on the website about some of the things I do to try and be green. I’ve made some small changes to this. There are still more things I can do and I will keep adding to this list.
I was planning on releasing this blog during COP26, it accidently posted a few weeks back unfinished, this is a tidier version.
The U.K. hosts COP-OUT 26 this week, the global summit where leaders meet to confirm that they don’t care about the planet a long as they’re all making decent money and have a decent supply of drugs and hookers. Biden and Johnson fell asleep. Johnson was photographed holding his fingers up to confirm that 1.5 degrees was his target, when he was actually holding up 6 fingers.
I have been reading a few books about the climate recently, but since Bill Gates had his microchip installed in me via the Covid vaccine, he instructed me to read his book on the environment. I agreed but told him I wouldn’t enjoy it.
Unfortunately he over rode that setting and insisted that I did. I did however rent the book from the library app, Borrow Box, so I did not add to his wealth IN YOUR FACE GATES, you can't control me. Then after writing this paragraph I ended up buying the book! You win this time Willy (he told me to refer to him as Willy, something only his friends or top vaccinated killer bots use).
I guess the thing I liked about the book is the fact that he’s not an environmentalist, he’s not a scientist, and he’s not grinding a left wing axe and connecting it to the environment. He is a clear communicator who puts things as simply as you can given the complexities. The book isn’t perfect and I mention my biggest criticism, his attraction to geo engineering, below. Its also interesting to hear a confessed libertarian and laissez faire free marketeer calling for more government regulation and intervention because there are things “the market isn’t equipped to deal with” makes me roll my eyes. But in fairness, he does acknowledge this contradiction.
But the clarity and simplicity of message was enough. So I decided to put some of the nicest bits of information into a blog, to which I have added a couple of my own observations which have arisen this week watching news coverage of COP26.
Point 1 - Greenhouse Gases
The first point is a really basic one but I liked having it repeated to me.
It’s to do with the term Greenhouse. It is really good description of the problem. Like a greenhouse the world is trapping gasses inside and that’s making things hotter.
It’s no different to your car on a hot day. Sunlight passes in through the windows more than heat escapes. The inside of the car heats up. If you remained inside, eventually you'll die.
Point 2 - The Science is Settled
The next point is that man made climate change is real and based on the agreed science.
Some people will say “oh but we’ve had ice ages and the world was hotter when dinosaurs were around. It’s all part of a natural cycle”. That’s true. There is a natural cycle to how the world heats and cools.
But the agreed science is that since the industrial revolution when we spluttered billions of tonnes of greenhouse gasses into the atmosphere we have caused an increase in the heat of the plant which otherwise would not have happened.
In that short time it already increased the temperature by an extra degree. When dinosaurs existed the planet was 4 degrees warmer and crocodiles lived above the artic circle. We should not be increasing any natural warming of the world at the rate we currently are doing.
If any news or social media post takes you down a different route, saying that it’s not real, it’s plain wrong. The science may have been under debate or less certain in the 70’s and 80s. It’s not anymore.
But let’s just think about the implications of being wrong. If we do things to fix climate change but it turns out we were all wrong about it. The end result is that the world is a better place and everyone is better off. So even if you don’t believe it, you may as well join in and help change things anyway. It’s like not believing in god only to get to heaven to be told you’re wrong. If you're wrong and in heaven, its not such a big deal.
Or to put it another way, so what if we're wrong if you're better off.
Point 3 - The Rate at which the world is warming is CATASTROPHIC
The science shows that at our current rate, this warming will be catastrophic. That's the agreed position.
What is catastrophic? That sounds like a stupid question but it’s not. It’s all relative and if it means that the world will end in a billion years time, who cares.
We know that death and suffering to poor people isn’t catastrophic to wealthy Europeans and Americans. It’s just bad luck for them. It happens today in various ways and it doesn’t affect our lives at all, we don't care and we do nothing. Is it catastrophic like that, because again, who cares?
As we’re on the winning end of global systemic racism and inequality we don’t need to lift a finger to stop a catastrophe if it’s not affecting us. There are plenty of things that are catastrophic for others today and we do nothing so we're hardly going to be arsed if we add something else to the list.
Unfortunately catastrophic means that our children will suffer, hence my passionate self interest in thinking about doing something.
Catastrophic is saying is that our children may not survive due to the impact we have had on the climate. The chances of it being life ending for them are increased. That's a pretty bleak message to hand on to your kids given that the last 80 years have been a gradual improvement in living standards and wealth despite the backdrop of the cold war or other mystery virus pandemics that we eventually overcome. This improvement in living standards has already stopped, even before climate change is taken into account, this is not a pleasant legacy.
Its dead simple, clear and settled, they’re dead, we’ve condemned them to death, we knew we had done this, and we did nothing to change it. That’s the exact position we're in based on the science. History is not going to be kind to us for doing nothing.
Its really strange that when 0.01% of people died from Covid, many of them over average life expectancy age anyway, we had a huge reaction, wiping out our economy to keep people safe. Yet when it comes to global warming where more people are already dying from its effects in greater numbers than Covid, we do nothing and continue to bicker about the impracticality of electric charging for cars. But there we go. When you’re spoilt this is what happens.
The Archbishop of Canterbury said this situation was similar to Nazi Germany. He got criticised for this, but you can see his point. We have the option today NOT to send our children to death camps, but we can't be arsed to do much because there is so much good stuff to watch on Netflix.
In 1940 previous generations were tested with the question “whatcha gonna do now?”. They responded and got together to do something. arguably WWII did creep up on that generation over the previous decade. Our generation, when faced with an even greater challenge to civilisation, have yet to stand up and be counted, we no longer have a decade to think about it.
Point 4 - Net Zero by 2050
Scientists and environmentalists are saying that we need to stop emitting carbon into the atmosphere bringing it down to net zero by 2050. They are not saying this because it will solve man made climate change, nor will it stop the world from warming with potentially deadly effects for some people. But because the science points to this being the level at which global warming may stay at around 1-2 degrees if we did.
It will still be challenging. People will still die. At this level, mainly poor people and mainly non-white people, but they will die in large numbers regardless of our actions now. Keeping it to 1-2 degrees mitigates some of the worse effects of climate change on us, effects that we are already seeing today.
Point 5 - 51 billion tonnes
Net Zero. What does that means. How much carbon are we emitting anyway?
The best number to remember is that we emit around 51 billion tones of CO2 a year and we need to get this to zero.
At the start of Covid, most countries around the world stopped plane travel, stopped people driving or getting the train to work, and told people to stay inside and do nothing bar go out for a walk, or take a short trip to a shop. In that time emissions dropped 5%.
So we know that putting the world under house arrest only reduces emissions by 5% so its clear that reducing it by another 95% is going to take a mammoth effort.
Point 6 - 5 areas
Where are these other emissions? Willy focuses on 5 areas, 5 groups which I think is a really useful way to consider where the bulk of emissions come from, and therefore where the bulk of reductions are needed. Each of these areas need to get to Net Zero.
These are:
How we make things (Manufacturing - 31%)
How we plug in (Electricity - 27%)
How we grow things (Agriculture - 19%)
How we get around (Transport - 16%)
How we live (buildings - 7%)
Point 7 - Electricity
Willy focuses a lot on electricity and due to my microchip I bought into this argument somewhat.
The point with electricity is this. It’s not the largest contributor to our emissions. It’s just 1 of the 5 main groups. But it is the 1 area that has the potential to rescue other areas. If you could make electricity without emissions, then you can power transport and remove its emissions too.
Nuclear Power
Nuclear power is the ultimate green energy. It burns no fossil fuel and creates more power than any other energy source, on all measures.
Willy is pro-nuclear and I have a sympathy with this. My dad worked in a nuclear power plant for a time when I was younger and the place did sound fascinating. And it does amaze me that we have buildings being maintained by people who had no instruction book, which men like my dad were patching up when they went wrong, and which never even existed as a concept when they were kids, which now power the world.
Nuclear power does worry me. It’s destructive force does scare me. 3 mile island, Chernobyl and Fukushima worry me. The thought of waste being around for thousands of years hurts my head. But is it a rational fear? Cars kill more people than nuclear power and have done more damage yet I’m not scared of them. We’ve just done things to make them more safe. Shouldn’t we do the same with nuclear power?
The other downside of course is that when you know how to make electricity from nuclear power you also know how to make bombs from it. Given that the world still hasn’t ended it’s Christian versus Muslim crusades of the Middle Ages and the Christian extremists in the USA are still making disruptive campaigns into the Middle East, and we have the Muslim extremists there trying to get hold of nuclear power which could eventually lead to nuclear armed terrorists the whole concept bothers me. Terrorists now kill less people than an average train crash. How will we respond to them when they can wipe out a country?
Despite these downsides, I think for now, I am still more than 50% for nuclear power as one of the best things we can do now to get to net zero emissions.
Typically the UK has gone from having a great nuclear business with a set of stations around the country, to selling it off and losing that expertise with new stations like Hinkley Point now being built using Chinese expertise. In my view this is wrong. We should get this type of engineering back into our Universities, apprenticeships back focused on this industry, and we should be taking this technology forward and keeping it onshore as we build new stations.
Point 8 - The Media
Watching the BBC News coverage of COP26 it was dominated by two issues. You may think, given the urgency of the issue that it was two issues relating to the environment. No, it wasn't it was:
India, Russia and China didn't turn up, and
French fishermen.
Both of these issues distract and trivialise the climate issues.
By talking about India, Russia and China it makes it sound like they are the biggest problem. They may be big or even the biggest emitters at present, but global warming didn't start in the last 40 years since China started to do our dirty manufacturing work on our behalf. It started when the UK became coal fired during the industrial revolution. That’s when bulk of the emissions causing the problem today were locked into the atmosphere.
So whilst it is a news story that these countries do not attend, it should not be set as 'balance' or 'contrast' or just 'click bait' to every mention of COP26, or however BBC journalists see it when reporting on the climate. It leads to viewers shrugging their shoulders and thinking... well, if they won't turn up you can't expect me to do anything.
The second issue is French fishermen and specifically the issuing of around 100 or 200 licences to small French fishing boats. Whilst this might be loud noise in France, and that may suit their upcoming elections, it should not be reported on and connected to climate change. No one cares if there are trivial paperwork disputes going on, or if Macron is up for election, or who likes who. Its irrelevant when talking about the climate.
Point 9 - Global Warming
Global warming is a bad term. Even I feel pleased when people say the UK is going to warm up. Worse still, historically our Government Ministers buy into this and joke about it.
This week a Tory MP, Owen Patterson, resigned to avoid being suspended from the House of Commons for failing to follow the rules on standards in public life. This is a quote from the independent committee recommending his suspension:
"The breaches, taken together, reflect a pattern of behaviour where Mr Paterson failed to observe a clear boundary between his outside commercial work and his parliamentary activities. No previous case of paid advocacy has seen so many breaches or such a clear pattern of confusion between the private and public interest."
The same Owen Patterson said this about global warming in 2013:
"Remember that for humans, the biggest cause of death is cold in winter, far bigger than heat in summer. It would also lead to longer growing seasons and you could extend growing a little further north into some of the colder areas."
You may think to yourself, yeah, but who cares what an MP says. Well, at the time he made the statement he was the Environment Secretary for the Government. The man was praising global warming because pensioners would have lower heating bills and British farmers might be able to grow olives. The idiocy of this statement is breathtaking.
This was in 2013, just at a time when we could have been taking bold action that by today would be making us wealthier and healthier. But no. Don't worry though. Owen's net worth is estimated by one website to be over £15 million. He's fine, although he does have to put up with another horror inflicted on the world, one that he was dead set against, same sex marriage.
Imagine your legacy being that you joked about climate change but didn't like two people who loved each other getting married and you were so corrupted that you thought yourself above the anti-sleaze committee.
Global Warming is not the correct term. Its Climate Change. Man Made Climate Change. And it is a Climate Disaster or Emergency.
Point 10 - Geo-Engineering
As I said at the start, there are elements of Willy's book that I dislike besides being lectured to by a Billionaire private jet user.
One is that Willy, as you’d expect, loves technology and innovation a bit too much. I agree with him that it will play a part in combatting global warming, but relying on something that doesn’t exist but hoping it’s just around the corner, is not healthy. We cannot invent our way out of this emergency. It’s like someone being hit by a car and not calling an ambulance but hoping that a teleporting machine will be invented in time to get that person to hospital. Its not how you save someone.
These schemes come under the umbrella term of “geoengineering”. Whenever you hear this term, or whatever term it’s replaced with when it becomes too toxic to use, I say listen with caution.
Willy talks about technology that already exists that will dim the sun. He says it’s “proven” because it mimics what happens after a volcanic eruption. The same particles are emitted into the atmosphere, it reflects more of the suns rays and has a cooling effect.
In the scheme of things I know nothing about these scientific things. But I think humans do have pretty good gut feelings and intuition about things. And my intuition, based on my experience of what I see around me, is that everything good, also has a down side. Also, that we meddle with nature at our peril. This gut feel makes me nervous of geoengineering schemes.
Back in 2014, 5 years before Willy's book, the Guardian carried this article on dimming the sun.
Point 11 - The Real Cost of Oil
Oil and oil derived products like cars and plastics are cheap, not because oil is cheap, but because we have not factored in the true cost of oil. Its the same as saying it only takes 10 cents to produce a bullet so it can be sold at 15 cents for a profit of 5.
But once that bullet is shot into the brain of a breadwinner with two kids, who then drop out of school to support the family, and one ends up in prison because of the difficult upbringing they had, the real cost of that bullet is much more. It’s the same with oil. If you factor in the cost of damage done, it doesn't cost 15 cents.
Yesterday, I could fly from Bristol to Dublin for £9 return. It would have cost me £10 return to go to the airport using an electric bus, or I could get a standard class diesel train to London and back for £230, the price of which will only increase when the line is electrified. We need to accept that the real cost of oil needs to be priced in. The polluter must pay.
Point 12 - Copout26
Finally, I thought, what is one thing I would like to have seen from COP26. One thing that would have given me a belief that actually, politicians get it and know the right things to do.
I think that one thing would have been a pledge to review and change GDP by 2025.
That's not even been mentioned. So far there have been some nice words, a decent pledge on methane gas and I'm sure in the last week some headlines will be spun to make it sound positive.
Climate change is about equity, its about fairness, its about us all having a better life. Our politicians are unable or unwilling to deliver this and they have failed us. This generation of politicians will be gone by the time the problem really starts to bite. And we will have let them off the hook by our inaction.
Post Script, Bill said he doesn't like being called Willy. He prefers Billy the Chip.
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